US Dollar to Rise against Japanese Yen


The US dollar fell against the Japanese Yen to the predicted levels of the prior article.

The U.S. retail sales value stood at 0.2% in November, which is higher than the analyst estimate of 0.1%.

I am leaning towards the U.S. Dollar bulls being in the driver’s seat.

In my last article on 13th November, I was bearish on the U.S. Dollar (UUP) as I expected it to fall against the Japanese Yen (FXY) till the 111.98 mark.

This came true, as by 19th November, the Greenback had fallen to the said level. Moreover, after tumbling to this level, the Greenback has tested this support zone three times.

However, I now believe the bearish fall has come to an end, as I expect the Greenback to rise till the range between 112.44 and 112.84.

Hence, to establish the likelihood of this occurring, I will look at the fundamental news affecting the pair, whilst also analysing the charts using technical analysis tools.

I expect the trade war to benefit the U.S. Dollar in the coming days. There has been no new negative news relating to the trade war. Hence, this shall boost the value of the Greenback as the Japanese Yen is seen as a safe-haven currency.

Thus, if there is no negative news in any of its rival pairs, then the value of the Yen will decrease. Moreover, due to the Christmas and New Year holidays, I expect the next few days to be quiet which will help the U.S. Dollar bulls’ stage a strong recovery.

I expect the U.S. Dollar to be a big winner in the forex market in the coming days. However, this will not be driven by a strengthening of the U.S. economy but by the rather grim outlook investors have on the global economy. Geopolitical concerns over Brexit and the Eurozone will cause the Greenback to have a higher close across the board by the end of the year.

The latest U.S. retail sales data came in above expectations. The retail sales value for November stood at 0.2%, which is higher than analyst estimates of 0.1%.

Moreover, the core retail sales value came in at 0.2%, which is in line with analyst estimates. Hence, I expect this rise in consumer spending to give the Greenback’s bulls a shove in the right direction. It will provide the U.S. Dollar bulls with positive support.


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